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Post-Nomination Polling Bounce?

The first truly general election polls have come in.  From what I've seen, they've given Obama around a 6 point lead, a lead that is outside the margin of error and significantly different from the polls taken during the Clinton/Obama nomination fight.   Obama's strength as a candidate should not be underestimated and it is, I suppose, possible that he will carry that sort of lead throughout the general election battle.  But I doubt it.  We tend to see what we want in polls, especially those taken so far away from the actual election.  Just as many of us were tempted to attribute McCain's lead during the Clinton/Obama fight solely to his strength as a candidate, many on the left are tempted to attribute Obama's newfound lead solely to his strength as a candidate, ignoring the role outside events play on polls, especially those taken so far away from the actual event.  The polls closer to November will probably be somewhere between these two extremes, the candidates running neck to neck or Obama garnering only a slight lead.  Some of Obama's current strength is likely a post-nomination bounce.
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It can't be done

Perhaps the major attack line being used against John McCain is that he is a continuation of George W. Bush, an extension of his being, if you will.  It is obvious why Senator McCain's opponents would use this attack - President Bush's approval rating aren't exactly stellar and most Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.  There is also the octennial fidgetry that comes at the end of every presidential second term.
That being said, portraying John McCain as GWB number two simply won't work.  It can't be done.  At least it can't be done on a large scale.  There are some people who will automatically connect McCain to Bush because they are both republicans.  Some will connect them because of certain shared policies (predominantly Iraq).  Aside from this, though, the strategy of morphing Bush and McCain into the same person is inherently flawed.
 Every successful characterization draws upon previously held perceptions, readily substantiated facts or an artificially created alternate image.  Now, it may be possible, after a great deal of effort, to create an alternate image that portrays McCain as some sort of lackey.  But that is not the image that the public has of him after years of standing on principle and sometimes standing alone.   Nor is it an image based upon facts.  
It is true that, as a republican, McCain shares basic republican values.  But this does not make him a duplication of Bush.  McCain has been seen as a maverick and as a rival to Bush.  Any attempt to equate them will ultimately achieve little success.         
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RE: McCain Cakewalk

In response to Patrick Ruffini's post earlier this week.....

I think that there is a more fundamental change in conservative attitudes toward McCain than this post would indicate, which is demonstrated by the endorsement of leading conservative voices, including many conservative statesmen and leading newspapers.

I think this is more of a re-evaluation of McCain than a mere confluence of events, though the confluence has undoubtedly helped. True, there does seem to be a hesitancy to attack McCain. And, true, this scenario (McCain's ascendancy) was always plausible because of weaknesses in the other candidates. I, too, at one point thought that Fred Thompson was the greatest danger to McCain's campaign.


But, I think, at core, many conservatives are experiencing a re-evaluation akin to what I experienced. In 2000, I strongly disliked McCain. A conservative, and a strong social conservative at that, I had heard a few statements McCain had made and had become convinced that he was somehow against my values, or even against me, as a social conservative.
 

This election cycle, having paid about 1000X more attention than I ever paid in 2000, I have gotten the chance to evaluate the candidates, not only on their positions, but also on their character. And, starting from a position of dislike, I came to very deeply respect Senator McCain and, eventually, to endorse him. Had I paid anything near the amount of attention in 2000 that I am paying in 2008, I would probably even have voted for him over George Bush.
 

I think McCain is benefiting from the increased scrutiny that candidates have had to face in this race as well as a strong distaste for negativity and a suspicious attitude toward deception that has developed among the electorate. Thus, the problem for some of the candidates. Thompson could have fit the conservative mold but underperformed. Romney crosses every t and dots every i, but there are very serious questions as to whether any of his positions are believable. Huckabee is a great guy and, I think, McCain's biggest challenger, but there are undoubtedly people that question his conservative credentials as well. Giuliani is much less conservative than McCain and, worse for him, has altered some of his positions recently.

The GOP electorate (maybe not the insiders or the power-brokers or the party bosses, but the people who actually make up the electorate) has changed. Many more conservatives would hesitate to declare someone "anathema" because they admit that global warming might, just might be a problem, for example. I know there are some differences that parts of the base have with McCain (though I don't think they are as severe as some would make them out to be), but I am convinced that part of the reason for a lingering distrust is that, to some, McCain just doesn't seem conservative. He doesn't seem to fit the mold. And I think and hope that this election cycle we will evalutate candidates on more than what image they seem to project. And, considering everything, I think McCain is a solid conservative and a good man.


I also think John McCain's elecability shouldn't be underestimated. He is the only candidate whose electability even comes close to rivaling the democratic candidates (Everyone else, yes, even Giuliani, is mired in the 30s!) and the poll numbers gel with what I have heard from moderates and even liberals who respect McCain because of his character and with the fact that McCain tends to attract large numbers of independents, which will be HUGE in the 2008 election. To compare McCain to Kerry (who was from the more liberal wing of his party and was was attacked for flip-flopping) makes no sense. McCain has been forthright with his positions and plays well with independents and, I think, will with conservatives, too.

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2008: America's Year

There are always surprises in a campaign season. And this campaign season has been more surprising than any in recent memory. But the biggest surprise to me is not the mini-saga of Hillary v. Barack or the free-for-all republican fight to the death.


Rather, it is the caliber of the candidates themselves.  Putting aside the ideological differences between the candidates and looking at them solely in terms of experience, character, authenticity and connection with the electorate, the majority of the candidates running are principled, intelligent and clearly care about the American people.


Whether exemplified in Mike Huckabee's promise to be part of the serving class, not the ruling class or John McCain's pledge to deliver "straight talk," the clear and undistorted truth that the American people deserve, or even in the detailed and thoughtful plans that the leading democratic candidates have put forward, one thing is clear - in this election season, Americans have several good choices and will likely end up with two very solid nominees from the democratic and republican parties.

This is tied up in the fact the many or the candidates are not "establishment" candidates, so to speak, but orginate from and represent the interests and concerns of their base and indeed of the American people.  The majority of the candidates are not candidates of the backroom bosses, the business bigwigs or even the bloggers.  They are America's candidates.  And 2008 is America's year.

True, they are experienced.  True, they understand how the levers of power operate.  If they did not understand this, they could not serve effectively in the role of president.  But they have not succombed to the temptation to elevate special interests or even powerful constituencies in their own parties above the needs of the people they are seeking to serve.

And that, my friends, is good news for America.

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